The Bantrym Board: Week 4 Picks
Five picks. One Best Bet. The Bantrym Board enters Week 4 at 9-5-1 overall and 2-1 on Best Bets, with Cal getting the star against Clemson.
Three weeks down, and the receipts are still looking pretty good.
The Bantrym Board enters Week 4 sitting at 9-5-1 overall and 2-1 on Best Bets. Week 3 gave us a 2-2 split, including a Best Bet loss on UNC +3.5, so there’s no victory lap happening over here. We post the wins, we post the losses, and we move on to the next board.
Week 4 gives us five plays: an outright underdog, a Saturday-night shootout, two road favorites, and an SEC dog getting more than a field goal.
Here’s the board.
⭐ BEST BET: Cal ML vs. Clemson
We aren't asking Cal to cover. We're asking them to win the game.
Clemson survived UNC 28-20 last week, but the Tigers trailed for most of the game before scoring two late touchdowns. Their offense has also had problems consistently staying on the field.
Now Clemson has to travel across the country to Berkeley for a late Friday-night kickoff.
Cal is 2-1 and has already shown it can go on the road and win at Syracuse. More importantly, this is exactly the kind of spot we want when we're taking a moneyline: a game the market views as essentially a toss-up where we believe the home team has the better setup.
Clemson has the talent advantage on paper. We're betting that doesn't automatically translate to the better team Friday night.
The Pick: Cal ML ⭐
Oregon at USC — OVER 62.5
Sometimes we don't need to overthink it.
USC has been putting points on the board all season, but the defense just surrendered 35 to Rutgers.
On the other side, Oregon's offense is coming off an 84-point performance. Portland State is Portland State, but Oregon has more than enough offensive firepower to attack a USC defense that hasn't convinced us it can turn this into a rock fight.
Two explosive offenses. A USC defense we're willing to attack. Saturday night at the Coliseum.
We want points.
The Pick: Oregon/USC OVER 62.5
USF -17.5 at Bowling Green
The number is big.
We're laying it anyway.
USF enters Week 4 undefeated and is coming off a 59-17 win over Delaware State in which the Bulls piled up more than 600 yards of offense.
Bowling Green enters the matchup winless.
This is less about simply betting the better team and more about believing USF keeps its foot down when it gets control of the game.
Seventeen and a half is uncomfortable.
Good.
The Pick: USF -17.5
JMU -3.5 at Old Dominion
This might be our favorite number on the board outside of the Best Bet.
JMU has started the season 3-0, and the market has already moved beyond the number we grabbed.
But our receipt says -3.5.
That's what matters.
Old Dominion gets this one at home, and rivalry games can get weird quickly. We're not expecting JMU to casually walk into Norfolk and win by four touchdowns.
We just think they're the better football team, and at -3.5, we're willing to ask them to prove it.
The Pick: JMU -3.5
Ole Miss +3.5 at Florida
This might be the most interesting game on the board.
Ole Miss is coming off a 32-24 win over LSU, while Florida survived Auburn 44-39 on the road.
Now Ole Miss heads into Gainesville as an underdog.
Florida deserves respect. The Gators are undefeated, they're at home, and this is not an easy place to walk into and steal a game.
That's also why we're not being asked to lay anything with Ole Miss.
We're getting +3.5.
That extra half-point matters in a matchup we expect to be competitive deep into the fourth quarter. Ole Miss doesn't have to leave Gainesville with a win for this ticket to cash.
We'll happily take the points.
The Pick: Ole Miss +3.5
The Week 4 Board
⭐ Cal ML vs. Clemson — BEST BET
Oregon/USC OVER 62.5
USF -17.5 at Bowling Green
JMU -3.5 at Old Dominion
Ole Miss +3.5 at Florida
Season Record: 9-5-1
Best Bet Record: 2-1
Five picks. One Best Bet. Every receipt kept.
Nobody asked. We’re saying it anyway.
WE TALK SPORTS.
Week 4 Results
Cal ML vs Clemson — ❌ LOSS (Clemson 24, Cal 10)
Oregon/USC OVER 62.5 — ✅ WIN (Oregon 41, USC 27 — 68 total)
USF -17.5 at Bowling Green — ❌ LOSS (USF 14, Bowling Green 6)
JMU -3.5 at Old Dominion — ✅ WIN (JMU 46, Old Dominion 20)
Ole Miss +3.5 at Florida — ❌ LOSS (Florida 52, Ole Miss 28)
Week 4 Record: 2-3
Season Record: 11-8-1
Best Bet Record: 2-2
Cal ML was the Week 4 Best Bet and lost.