The Bantrym Board: Week 5 Picks

Five more plays for Week 5. Michigan is the Best Bet, Iowa gets two touchdowns at Kinnick, we're looking for points in Starkville, and Louisville and Navy round out the Board.

Week 4 handed us our first losing week of the season.

We went 2-3, dropped the Best Bet, and moved to 11-8-1 overall and 2-2 on Best Bets.

Not what we wanted. Receipt kept.

Now we move on.

Week 5 has five plays on the Board. We're backing Iowa with two touchdowns at Kinnick, looking for points in Starkville, taking Louisville on the road, riding with Navy in a rivalry game, and putting the Best Bet on Michigan to bounce back.

Let's get into it.

⭐ BEST BET: Michigan -5.5 at Minnesota

The Pick: Michigan -5.5

Michigan let one get away last week.

They went into Iowa City, played a one-point game against a very good Iowa team, and walked out with a 20-19 loss.

Now they get Minnesota.

I think this is the perfect bounce-back spot for Michigan.

This is still a team that should be able to control games up front, establish the run and make Minnesota consistently move the football against its defense. Minnesota hasn't shown me enough offensively to believe they're going to dictate how this game is played.

Michigan doesn't need to completely reinvent anything after the Iowa loss. They need to clean up the mistakes, lean on what they do well and finish drives.

We're laying less than a touchdown with the team I think is clearly better.

Michigan gets back on track.

Best Bet: Michigan -5.5.

Iowa +14.5 vs. Ohio State

The Pick: Iowa +14.5

Iowa is 4-0.

They just beat Michigan.

And now we're getting 14.5 points at Kinnick Stadium.

I'll take that all day.

Ohio State is obviously loaded, but this isn't an Iowa team I'm interested in treating like some scrappy underdog that just needs to make the game ugly enough to hang around.

This is a good football team.

The defense has been one of the best in the country, and the offense has shown enough to actually win games when it's needed. We saw exactly that against Michigan when Iowa put together a 91-yard game-winning touchdown drive late in the fourth quarter.

That's what makes this number so interesting.

Ohio State is going to have to earn everything against this defense, and if Iowa can avoid giving them short fields and make this a four-quarter game, 14.5 is a lot of points.

And it's Kinnick.

We've seen what happens when highly ranked teams walk into Iowa City expecting an easy Saturday.

I'm not saying Iowa has to win this game.

But I absolutely believe they can.

Give me the Hawkeyes +14.5.

Alabama at Mississippi State — OVER 59.5

The Pick: OVER 59.5

This is the game on the Board where I just want points.

Alabama is 4-0.

Mississippi State is 4-0.

And both offenses have shown they can move the football.

Keelon Russell has Alabama rolling, while Kamario Taylor has given Mississippi State an offense capable of actually threatening good teams through the air.

That's the key for me.

We aren't betting an Over where Alabama has to do all the work.

Mississippi State can contribute.

If the Bulldogs can hit a couple explosive plays and force Alabama to keep its foot on the gas, this game can get into the 60s without becoming some ridiculous shootout.

35-28 gets us there.

38-24 gets us there.

31-30 gets us there.

There are plenty of paths.

Two undefeated SEC teams. Two offenses we trust.

Give me OVER 59.5.

Louisville -3.5 at NC State

The Pick: Louisville -3.5

Last week's loss to Wake Forest doesn't scare me away from Louisville.

It was a bad loss. Own it and move on.

I still believe Louisville is the better football team in this matchup, and I like them to respond on the road.

NC State can score, and going into Carter-Finley isn't going to be easy. I'm not expecting Louisville to walk in and win by three touchdowns.

They don't have to.

We're asking them to win by four.

Louisville has enough offensively to put pressure on NC State, and after dropping a game they should've won last week, I'm expecting a much cleaner performance.

Take care of business on the road.

Louisville -3.5.

Navy +3 at Air Force

The Pick: Navy +3

Service-academy football.

You know exactly what's coming.

Run the football. Control the clock. Limit possessions. Make every mistake matter.

And in that type of game, I'll take the points.

Navy has been able to sustain drives and has enough offensively to make Air Force work for this one. Neither team is likely to get endless possessions, which makes a full field goal increasingly valuable.

This also isn't a matchup where I'm interested in getting cute.

It's Navy-Air Force.

It's probably going to be physical.

It's probably going to be weird.

And it's probably going to be close.

If Navy has the ball late with a chance to win the game, that's exactly where I want to be holding +3.

Give me Navy +3.

The Week 5 Board

⭐ BEST BET — Michigan -5.5 at Minnesota

Iowa +14.5 vs. Ohio State

Alabama at Mississippi State — OVER 59.5

Louisville -3.5 at NC State

Navy +3 at Air Force

Season Record: 11-8-1

Best Bet Record: 2-2

First losing week is behind us.

Time to respond.

Five picks. One Best Bet. Every receipt kept.