NFL Week 1: The Sunday Slate

The first full Sunday of the NFL season is here. We're going game by game through the Week 1 slate — what we're watching, the biggest questions, and who we think comes out on top.

The 1:00 Window

Falcons at Steelers

I’m already skeptical of Atlanta, and most of it comes down to Tua Tagovailoa.

Kevin Stefanski named Tua the Week 1 starter while Michael Penix Jr. continues working his way back from his knee injury. I think Stefanski is a really good football coach, and if anyone can find a way to make this work, maybe it’s him. But I’m at the point where I need Tua to prove to me that he can still be a relevant NFL quarterback.

That’s frustrating because I actually like a lot of what Atlanta has elsewhere.

Bijan Robinson is one of the best backs in football, Drake London is a superstar, and I think Stefanski gives them a chance to be a much more disciplined football team.

Then there’s Pittsburgh.

I’ll admit it: I still believe in Aaron Rodgers.

It’s the retirement tour. He’s back with Mike McCarthy, and Pittsburgh surrounded him with DK Metcalf, Michael Pittman Jr., Pat Freiermuth, Jaylen Warren and Rico Dowdle. That’s a lot of weapons for a quarterback who, even at this point in his career, I still trust to get the ball where it needs to go.

The other thing I’m fascinated by is seeing what the Steelers actually look like without Mike Tomlin. That’s almost impossible to picture after all these years.

I think this is close, but give me Pittsburgh.

What I’m watching: Does Aaron Rodgers have one more legitimate run in him?

My pick: Steelers

Ravens at Colts

I’m all in on Baltimore this year.

I’ve thought the Ravens were capable of winning the Super Bowl for basically the last two seasons, and I’m going right back to them again.

This is a different era in Baltimore without John Harbaugh, but Lamar Jackson is still Lamar Jackson. Derrick Henry is still a monster. Mark Andrews is still there. Zay Flowers now has to really embrace being the No. 1 receiver.

Indianapolis isn’t some pushover, though.

Daniel Jones is back. Jonathan Taylor is still one of the best running backs in football. Alec Pierce gives them a legitimate weapon outside.

And then there’s Tyler Warren.

I’m planting my flag early: I think Tyler Warren has a chance to finish this season as TE1.

That’s how high I am on him.

This could become a very physical game with Taylor and Henry on opposite sides, but ultimately I trust Lamar and Baltimore’s roster considerably more.

What I’m watching: What does Baltimore look like in its first season without Harbaugh?

My pick: Ravens

Bills at Texans

This might be the best game of the 1:00 window.

Buffalo has somehow given Josh Allen even more to work with. DJ Moore joins Khalil Shakir and Keon Coleman, James Cook is coming off another strong season, and Allen is still the best quarterback in football in my eyes.

The concern is the other side of the ball.

And Houston is an awful opponent to have while you’re trying to figure things out.

DeMeco Ryans has built one of the nastiest defenses in football. Will Anderson Jr. and Danielle Hunter can wreck a game by themselves, and Houston has already shown it can make life miserable for Allen.

That makes this strength-on-strength.

Josh Allen against Houston’s defense.

But I’m almost more interested in what happens when Houston has the ball.

This feels like a massive year for C.J. Stroud. We’ve already seen the ceiling. Now I want to see whether he can consistently get back there. Nico Collins is still a legitimate No. 1, but Stroud needs to show that he can elevate the offense around him and put himself firmly back into that top-quarterback conversation.

If Houston wants to be more than just a really good defense that makes the playoffs, it starts with Stroud.

What I’m watching: Josh Allen vs. that Houston pass rush — and whether C.J. Stroud looks ready to take another step.

My pick: This is one I’m leaving alone. I want to watch it.

Bears at Panthers

I’m really high on Chicago.

But I also think this game is going to be closer than people expect.

The conversation around Caleb Williams has changed for me. We’re past wondering whether Ben Johnson can make this work. Now I want to know how high Caleb can go.

Top 10?

Top five?

That’s the next step.

DJ Moore is gone, which I actually think could end up being a positive for this offense. Now this really becomes Caleb’s young core with Rome Odunze, Luther Burden and Colston Loveland.

Carolina deserves more respect than they’ll probably get, though. Bryce Young showed progress, and I think Dave Canales is a good coach.

I’m not personally as high on Chuba Hubbard as others are, but the Panthers offense has enough pieces to make this interesting.

I think Chicago wins.

I don’t think it’s easy.

What I’m watching: Is Caleb Williams ready to enter the elite-QB conversation?

My pick: Bears

Browns at Jaguars

Apparently I’m higher on Cleveland than my group chat is.

That’s not saying much.

I’ve heard people argue that the Browns could be the worst team in football. I don’t think they’re going to be good, but I’m not ready to go that far.

The Myles Garrett trade obviously changes the identity of the defense, but getting Jared Verse back gives Cleveland a legitimate young building block rather than simply removing Garrett and starting over.

Offensively is where I have questions.

Deshaun Watson needs to give this team something. Quinshon Judkins should have a productive year if Cleveland can create any semblance of an offensive identity. I liked the Casey Concepcion addition. Harold Fannin Jr. is another young piece I want to see. Jerry Jeudy is still there.

There’s talent.

I just don’t know if the offense works.

Jacksonville is the opposite for me.

I’m very high on the Jaguars this year.

Trevor Lawrence was playing great football by the end of last season, and I believe in what Liam Coen is building. Brian Thomas Jr., Jakobi Meyers and Parker Washington give Lawrence plenty to work with.

The question is the running game and whether Jacksonville finds a real identity there.

Cleveland’s defense could keep this annoying for a while. Jacksonville’s offense eventually separates.

What I’m watching: Is Jacksonville actually ready to become one of the AFC’s best teams?

My pick: Jaguars

Saints at Lions

I expect Detroit to win this pretty comfortably.

Jared Goff is still a very good quarterback. Amon-Ra St. Brown is one of the most reliable receivers in football. Jameson Williams gives them explosiveness. Isaac TeSlaa is another weapon. Sam LaPorta is healthy.

And then there’s Jahmyr Gibbs, who might be the most dynamic running back in football.

Detroit disappointed last season after entering with huge expectations. I trust Dan Campbell to have this team ready to respond.

New Orleans is more interesting than I would’ve said a year ago.

Tyler Shough had a good season. Chris Olave is still there. Travis Etienne gives the backfield a different look. Juwan Johnson is a useful tight end.

But I’m still not sold on Shough being the guy long term.

Detroit’s defense concerns me, and that’s something I’ll be watching all season. I just don’t think New Orleans is the team that’s going to make me pay for that concern in Week 1.

What I’m watching: Does Detroit immediately look like the team we expected them to be last year?

My pick: Lions

Jets at Titans

Welcome to one of the least inspiring games of the 1:00 window.

And somehow I’m still interested.

Aaron Glenn’s Jets have Geno Smith at quarterback, which should at least give them something more stable than they’ve had at the position.

That doesn’t mean I suddenly believe in Geno Smith.

I don’t.

What I do want is a big year from Garrett Wilson. He’s too talented to keep having his production tied to whatever quarterback situation the Jets have created around him.

Tennessee is more interesting because of Cam Ward.

Now we get to see what a full offseason of development plus additional offensive help actually does for him. Carnell Tate gives Tennessee another young weapon, and this is the beginning of the Robert Saleh era — against the team that fired him, because apparently the NFL schedule makers have a sense of humor.

I don’t expect either team to be particularly good this season.

But I think Tennessee wins this one.

What I’m watching: The Cam Ward Year 2 jump.

My pick: Titans

Buccaneers at Bengals

Now this should be fun.

Baker Mayfield just got paid, and Tampa is handing him the keys for the foreseeable future.

Without Mike Evans, somebody has to become the next guy.

Emeka Egbuka has a massive opportunity. Chris Godwin finally being healthy helps. Jalen McMillan gives them another weapon.

I still think the Buccaneers score points.

I just think Cincinnati scores more.

Joe Burrow is healthy.

Ja’Marr Chase.

Tee Higgins.

Chase Brown.

That’s enough.

The question with Cincinnati is the same question we’ve asked forever:

Can the defense be good enough that Burrow doesn’t have to save them every week?

If the answer is even remotely yes, I think the Bengals are going to be a problem.

Tampa hangs around, but Cincinnati controls this game more than the final score might show.

What I’m watching: Can Cincinnati finally pair Burrow’s offense with a defense we can trust?

My pick: Bengals

The 4:25 Window

Cardinals at Chargers

Here’s one of my strongest opinions of Week 1:

I’m very high on the Chargers. I’m very low on Arizona.

It’s time for Justin Herbert.

We already know he’s talented. We’ve been talking about how talented he is for years. At some point the conversation needs to become whether Herbert can establish himself as one of the unquestioned top quarterbacks in football and lead a team on a legitimate run.

I think this could be the year.

Ladd McConkey is already a stud. Quentin Johnston gives them another weapon. Omarion Hampton is a player I think could have a monster season. And I believe in Jim Harbaugh.

Arizona?

I don’t get it.

They used the No. 3 overall pick on Jeremiyah Love, a running back, while entering the season with major questions at quarterback.

Jacoby Brissett being a Week 1 starting quarterback in 2026 tells you about where I am with this offense.

Maybe I’m completely wrong.

But Arizona is one of my candidates to be among the worst teams in football.

I think Los Angeles handles them.

What I’m watching: Justin Herbert beginning the season where I think he eventually belongs — in the top-QB conversation.

My pick: Chargers

Dolphins at Raiders

The Toilet Bowl of the Week.

Somebody has to win.

These might legitimately be two of the worst teams in football, and at least one of them gets to leave Week 1 undefeated.

Miami is basically starting over.

Jeff Hafley takes over. Malik Willis is QB1, and I believe in Hafley as a defensive coach.

I’m considerably less convinced by the roster he’s inheriting.

Then there’s Vegas.

Kirk Cousins starting while No. 1 overall pick Fernando Mendoza sits is actually something I don’t hate. We’ve become way too comfortable throwing rookie quarterbacks immediately into terrible situations and then wondering why they struggle.

Let Mendoza sit.

Learn.

Develop.

Whether Kirk Cousins is the perfect mentor for that plan is another conversation.

Maxx Crosby is still the guy who scares me here. If Miami’s offensive line can’t handle him, this could become a miserable afternoon for Willis.

I’m also not as high on Ashton Jeanty as most people seem to be, and I wouldn’t be shocked if Mike Washington eventually earns more work.

I have almost zero confidence picking this game.

So naturally...

Give me Miami.

There are enough former Packers over there that apparently I’ve decided that’s analysis now.

What I’m watching: Whether either of these teams gives me a reason to watch them again next week.

My pick: Dolphins

Commanders at Eagles

I think this is closer than people expect.

Washington gets Jayden Daniels back, and that’s the entire story for me. We know what this team can look like when Daniels is healthy and confident.

Now give him Terry McLaurin, Stefon Diggs and more offensive help and let’s see what the next step looks like.

Philadelphia is entering a different era offensively.

DeVonta Smith has a chance to step forward as the true centerpiece of the receiver room, and rookie Makai Lemon is one of the new pieces I’m interested in watching.

And then there’s Jalen Hurts.

This isn’t about proving that Hurts can win. He’s already done that. He’s played in two Super Bowls and won one.

But for as accomplished as he is, people still find ways to question how good he actually is.

Fine.

Go answer it again.

Saquon Barkley should have another big season, and I still think Philadelphia is the better team.

But it’s NFC East football. These teams hate each other. Washington has Daniels back.

Don’t expect a walkthrough.

What I’m watching: Healthy Jayden Daniels vs. an Eagles team that still owns this division until somebody takes it from them.

My pick: Eagles

Packers at Vikings

I have no idea what to expect here.

And that’s exactly why it’s one of the games I’m most interested in watching.

Minnesota now gets to see whether Kevin O’Connell can unlock Kyler Murray.

That’s fascinating.

Murray has Justin Jefferson, Jordan Addison and plenty of talent around him. Aaron Jones is still there, although I think Jordan Mason could eventually take over as the primary back as the season progresses.

Green Bay has just as many questions.

Josh Jacobs isn’t expected to be part of the Week 1 equation, which puts considerably more responsibility on Jordan Love. Christian Watson is being pushed into the WR1 spotlight, and this is the year I want to see Matthew Golden take a legitimate step.

Then there’s the defense.

Green Bay won’t have Micah Parsons yet. That means the existing core needs to establish an identity before Parsons eventually gets inserted into it.

And the matchup that could decide everything is obvious:

Green Bay’s secondary against Minnesota’s receivers.

If Murray immediately clicks with O’Connell and starts feeding Jefferson and that receiver room, Green Bay could have problems.

On the other side, Brian Flores is going to test Love without the security of leaning heavily on Jacobs.

I can envision this going in completely different directions depending on which uncertainty gets answered first.

I think Green Bay wins.

But this is one of those Week 1 games where I won’t pretend I know exactly what either team is yet.

What I’m watching: Packers secondary vs. Minnesota’s receivers — and Jordan Love being asked to carry more of the offense.

My pick: Packers

Sunday Night Football

Cowboys at Giants

This could be an awesome game.

It could also be Dallas by three touchdowns.

That’s what makes it interesting.

The Giants enter the John Harbaugh era with Jaxson Dart back for Year 2, Malik Nabers and Cam Skattebo around him. There’s a version of this where that offense becomes legitimately dynamic.

But Dallas can score.

Dak Prescott has never been my favorite quarterback, but I’m also not going to pretend he doesn’t put up numbers. Give him CeeDee Lamb, George Pickens, Jake Ferguson and Javonte Williams and there are going to be points available.

I’m equally interested in the defenses.

I think New York has pieces.

Dallas has new pieces of its own, and Caleb Downs is one of the players I’m most excited to see make his NFL debut.

This is still Cowboys-Giants.

Throw some of the preseason expectations out. Put them on Sunday Night Football. Let them hate each other for three hours.

I think Dallas wins.

I wouldn’t be stunned if New York makes this way more uncomfortable than Dallas wants.

And if Dart and this offense really have taken a step, an upset wouldn’t completely shock me either.

What I’m watching: Is the John Harbaugh/Jaxson Dart version of the Giants actually different?

My pick: Cowboys

Monday Night Football

Broncos at Chiefs

What a way to finish Week 1.

Patrick Mahomes is back.

Kansas City missed the playoffs last season after Mahomes’ knee injury, and now the Chiefs get an immediate divisional test against the team that ended their run atop the AFC West.

You couldn’t script it much better.

The Chiefs offense looks different. Kenneth Walker gives them another weapon in the backfield. Rashee Rice gets another season with Mahomes. And anytime Andy Reid has an entire offseason to build an offense around Patrick Mahomes, I’m going to pay attention.

But Denver isn’t showing up to be part of the Mahomes comeback story.

The Broncos made a run last season. They have one of the best defenses in football. Sean Payton has built a legitimate contender, and the offense has enough talent to attack Kansas City.

This is also where coaching becomes fascinating.

Sean Payton vs. Andy Reid.

Two of the best offensive coaches of their generation.

A division rivalry.

Arrowhead.

Monday Night Football.

Mahomes’ return.

This is probably the game I’m most excited to watch all weekend.

And I’m going against the comeback story.

I think Denver wins.

Not because I suddenly think Kansas City is done. Not because I don’t believe Mahomes can come back and have another great season.

I just think Denver is really good.

And there’s no better way for them to prove last season wasn’t a fluke than walking into Arrowhead on opening night and beating Patrick Mahomes.

What I’m watching: Everything. This is the one.

My pick: Broncos

Week 1 is going to answer some questions.

It’s also probably going to create about 100 new ones.

I want to see whether Caleb Williams takes the next step. Whether C.J. Stroud reminds everyone why we were so high on him in the first place. Whether Justin Herbert finally forces his way into the elite quarterback conversation. Whether Baltimore looks different without John Harbaugh. Whether the Jaguars are as good as I think they are. Whether the Cardinals are as bad as I think they are.

And then Monday night, we get Patrick Mahomes walking back onto the field with Kansas City trying to reclaim the AFC West.

Football is back.

Now we actually get some answers.